When Will D.C. Get Its First Measurable Snowfall of the Season?

(Updated at 2:20 p.m.) What kind of winter will we see here in D.C.?

The predictions vary, but most seem to think we’ll experience a colder-than-average winter. The big question, however, is how much snow we’ll get and when we’ll get it.

It’s impossible to accurately predict when we’ll get the first significant snowfall months in advance, but we can at least look at averages for guidance.

The National Weather Service today released a list of average dates of the first measurable snowfall around D.C. region. The dates are based on a data set extending from 1981 to 2010.

Capitol Hill is located between two weather stations in the list: Reagan National Airport and National Arboretum. The average date for the first measurable snowfall at DCA: December 18. For National Arboretum, it’s December 30, the latest average first measurable snowfall date on the list.

Split the difference, just for fun, and you get Christmas Eve, Dec. 24. But don’t expect a white Christmas: historically, that only happens about once a decade in D.C., according to the Capitol Weather Gang.

(The National Weather Service puts the white Christmas odds a bit higher, at 15 percent.)

Around the region, the earliest measurable snowfall goes to the appropriately-named Frostburg, Maryland. Frostburg gets its first measurable snowfall on November 8, on average.

Flickr photo by OZinOH